Mexico & Migration

The New York Times had an article on Sunday called “For Migrants, New Land of Opportunity Is Mexico.”  It had the following interesting points about migration and Mexico:

“The shift with Mexico’s northern neighbor is especially stark. Americans now make up more than three-quarters of Mexico’s roughly one million documented foreigners, up from around two-thirds in 2000, leading to a historic milestone: more Americans have been added to the population of Mexico over the past few years than Mexicans have been added to the population of the United States, according to government data in both nations.

Mexican migration to the United States has reached an equilibrium, with about as many Mexicans moving north from 2005 to 2010 as those returning south. The number of Americans legally living and working in Mexico grew to more than 70,000 in 2012 from 60,000 in 2009, a number that does not include many students and retirees, those on tourist visas or the roughly 350,000 American children who have arrived since 2005 with their Mexican parents.”

I didn’t find the second half of the article very convincing, however, since it relies heavily on anecdotal evidence and doesn’t broach the topics of drugs, violence, or the fact that the Mexican economy is tanking in 2013.  Trading economics has a nice figure (click for a better view) of Mexican GDP growth in the last 5 years.  So far Mexico has seen essentially zero GDP growth in 2013, causing the government and IFIs to drastically reduce forecasts.  If economic growth continues to stagnate, I predict a resurgence of migration north.


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